Tuesday, August 7, 2007

Adding FTO and Selling UNFI

Here is what Jubak says ... and I agree.
Refining margins continue to soar which should generate a huge cash flow at Frontier Oil (FTO). At the end of the first quarter the company's cash balance was $455 million, more than twice the level of the same quarter in 2006. But it's the future opportunities that the company has to put that current cash to work that I find most attractive at a time when the oil industry as a whole is struggling to find a place to reinvest its profits. The company expanded capital spending by 67% in the first quarter to add capacity to its existing Kansas and Wyoming refineries. In addition, Frontier Oil kicked off 2007 by buying a small ethanol blender giving the company added capacity in that growing market. The long-term future is even more interesting: As more oil flows south from Alberta's oil sands, the Rocky Mountain West will go from being a refining backwater to one of the most promising opportunities for expansion in the industry. Since Jubak added the shares of Frontier Oil to Jubak's Picks with a target price of $57 a share by March 2008, the stock is down by over 25% and is an excellent time to get in.

I am taking my gains with UNFI and moving on ... the recent sell off has created a lot of opportunity to buy and hold.

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